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The current massive globalization wave was driven by the cheap oil of the 80ties and 90ties. We have faced PeakGlobalization. The most global influential change of the 21st century will be the energy system, the finance system, the water system, the governance model (possible global government) and the currency model (possible global currency). Or supranational states will be fragmented of the will merge together to one big global super state which will end constitutions and democracy. Energy, water, materials, capital, governance and currencies will be the six leading facets in this huge choice for mankind. From energy perspectives global governance will not happen. Due to more expensive energy the globalization process in currently in reverse mode. From energy perspective we've faced PeakEnergy, PeakReach, PeakProduction, PeakTransport, PeakMobility. Expensive energy contracts the reach of people and products. PeakMaterials (often called PeakResources) is an another influence: that just makes any industrial manufactured product lots more expensive, it doesn't effect the above mentioned reach of people and products: it's just a global everywhere the same price effect having facet. The 20th century was characterized by a bi-polar global political system. The 21st century will be characterized by a multi-polar global political system. In the 20th century the polarity was about ideology. In the 21st century it's about energy/resources competition on global level, about governance/currency issues on global level and about water competition on regional, national, local level. If the economic growth of the East and South keep track (and will consume more energy/resources each year), transport, mobility, temperature control and power generation based on the old energy model will become very expensive (as in: not economical) . And the East and South will grow: they have the all benefits of being new, young, strong, committed. The West is no longer the economic centre of world, something that doesn't land very easily in the West. The Western World will face all the down sides of the 21th century, contrary to all the up sides the Western World have enjoyed in the 20th century. The West will suffer a lot of globalization in the 21th century. The West just has become to expensive for the global market. A mayor background driver of the globalization that has taken place the 20th century was neo-colonialism. These 'inferior' (in the eyes of the West) nations where the workshops/factories of the 'more intelligent' part of the world. The West has made this misconception already once with Japan and they made it the last two decades. China and India delivers both more Ph.Ds each year than there are Ph.Ds in total in Europe. The big dreams of a knowledge/innovation driven superior Western World is just based on neo-colonial quicksand, not on actual facts. The Western World is not more clever, just more expensive and more spoiled. The West has debts, the East and South have assets. The West is poor, but lives rich and the East and South are rich and going to live more richer than they have done. It's all a matter of purchase power. The purchase power of the West is totally based on credit. This quicksand will not last very long. Regarding energy/resources (which the West is using very much) the East and South will become the first in line (due to their purchase power). The economic/cultural critics of globalization (that is was about the right of the strongest and about draining cultural heritage) can rest: globalization is in reverse and this development have not even get the traction it will get later-on. We have faced PeakTransport and PeakMobility. Air transport for flowers, fruit and vegetable is over. Air mobility will be reduced. Tourism will stay closer to home. Immigration of economic weak new inhabitants in the social security states of Europe will cause huge problems. Globalization of capital will not only shrink, it will vanish. There's a direct relation between distance and risk. This is something we're forgotten. Increased distance equals less control equals more risk equals more loses. The global capital market will disappear. It was just a big experiment with other peoples savings/pensions and fires up by the dumbness of gold-leases delivered by Central Banks. Globalization will not shrink in a similar way as it has risen. It will collapse. Due to energy prices. Due to capital loses. Read 'Shock Doctrine' of Naomi Klein to be able to steer in turbulence without further damage of crucial basic economic values. Energy is Globalization is a doubtful statement.

Author: Gijs Graafland

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