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Regarding the Energy Crisis/Crunch, governments should act different than they did regarding the Credit Crisis/Crunch. Act is not the right word, sleep would be a better one. Anybody with a common sense knows that (although we want it very much) trees don't grow into heaven, but at a certain height stabilize in growth. Politicians have prove not to have this common sense regarding to credit and as it looks right now they certainly don't have it regarding energy. The smooth talk of the oil/gas/coal industry is eaten away like candy. Nobody thinks: these guys really don't want development of carbon alternatives on the market, but just want only an increasing size of the economic earnings. Tens of years of reserves left. Bla bla bla. The irony is that there is no global auditing method for energy reserves. Each carbon nation just sells air regarding carbon reserves, just to maintain their good credit ratings and by that attract investments and being able to loan for low rates on the global capital market. Do anybody that thinks more than 5 minutes on this issue really be convinced that the oil/gas/coal companies would like the development of alternatives? Or that carbon nations would tell the real story (with also the doubts) on their real economic explorable reserves. Let's them both start with quoting their reserves with a) a quality grade, b) a pollution rate (sweet oil is getting scarce) and c) a exploration cost price. Than we get some more serious data input than all the hot air balloons we get right now. There's carbon enough left in the world that's one side of the story. The other side is that we've taken the easy part first and now we stocked with the more difficult part that's left. The price of exploration, refining and transport (Caspian Bay > Afghanistan > High Seas) is increasing at high speed. That's our carbon energy story. We hear a lot of bla bla on major coal reserves left, but someone forgot to tell us the (yet never explored) depth and the quality (the good anthracite quality is gone, lower qualities are left) of these huge reservoirs. The carbon energy model has given us our wealth and is on they edge of taking it back from us. Unfortunately only a few politicians see this and even less think on policies to change our energy system to a sustainable (as in: fuel-free, or renewable) one. We take energy for granted and we don't understand that our prosperity is build on it (exactly like we did with credit). The credit market hit the wall with the Lehman collapse. The energy market will not hit a wall, but just will drain our economies increasingly and slow them down by that. Energy will eat up prosperity is an each year higher rate. Unless we change our energy system. Not for some vague CO2 horror story, but just for preventing the get taxed to the knees by holding on to an energy system that is outdated by its costs. What to do? Stop all carbon fuel subsidies is numbero uno. This strange subsidies are still in place in several nations in the East and South. It's stimulating an economy to go in the wrong direction. Second. Install the Energy as FIC model. It is governmental budget neutral so that should not be a problem to do this even this year. Leave the own power production of other industries out of scope in this and take some time to communicate why a change of energy system is important for maintaining prosperity and get companies and households not only according FIC, but also become an active part of the transition to a renewal (as in: not on fuel import based) energy system. Win the banking industry for the Energy as ROI, Energy as Collateral, etc. models. Use the energy model transition for economic recovery and economic transition. Money (as in: earning wages and earning profits) talks, preaching would help. Install an Department of Energy with an Energy Secretary, like you must install a Department of Credit and a Credit Secretary. Just say: fossil will be expensive, so you better start doing things different right now by design instead of hitting the wall or get strand in the woods as the fossil road gets weaker. Be an example. Order electric cars for the government. Forget nuclear fission. It takes too long and the business model delivers security costs, waste costs, facility destruction costs and calamity costs to the nation. Nuclear fission unfortunately has a parasitical business model that privatizes profits and socializes costs. It's too slow, too expensive, too risky. A business model that only calculates half of its costs and operates without (a valid, not a fake) insurance is not a wise business model. Certainly when there are plenty of valid, faster and less expensive alternatives. Nuclear fission is advocated by people without knowledge on actual energy alternatives. Due to the CO2 madness the environmental movement overcome all her resistance against nuclear fission, to combat the man-made fable of the CO2 enemy. If we don't be alert, the nuclear fission lobby not only will use the environmental movements (something like Coca-Cola advices Pepsi Cola), but also will use subsidies the CR rights will deliver them. First make the lobby (the CO2 movement), than arrange the funding (Carbon Rights) and than roll-out the garbage technology in a parasitical business model. Some one has done some severe planning. Only politician that don't wants to stay in office for decades will accept these kind of business models of one of the alternatives. Don't start advertising: advertising is just propaganda and will work contra-productive. If you need to advertise you have done poor communication. Just tell your nation the reality on the second half of the fossil reserves. They will understand. Talk with the governor of your Central Bank. Show him the finance models and the income that banks can earn on it. Never try to replace the market. No government can. Governments can tap the markets, never fuel them. Later-on (if needed) you can consider a guarantee model, but first see what happens when you just tell the cost reality on the (harder to explore, transport and refine) second half of the fossil reserves. If you issue guarantees do it by the Energy as Guarantee model (than the state gets income on this investment value adding). Prefer micro (building) and mesa (town) solution, but don't forget the need for macro (national) solutions. Separate energy budgets, don't use income taxes and exploration license income of fossil energy in the general budget, use them to transit to a fuel less energy model. Give all the school kids an energy kit (several types depending to education level). Consider the communication than done. Kids likes their future and are not stuck in tracks yet like we do. Stop bailing out banks: give them by the Energy as ROI and Energy as Fee model new income. If there are too less liquidities, talk with the Governor of the Central Bank on Quantitative Easing (enlarging the money supply), but ask him to focus that on energy transition investments. By taking care of the energy supply you will support the economic recovery, take care of governmental budgets and prevent economic collapse, governmental budget collapse, governmental structure collapse and currency collapse. In short: The five most simple to implement today already fully available energy transition models are: a) efficiency b) model changes, c) photovoltaic, d) geothermal and e) deserttech. These are the best defences for a nation not to be sucked into any energy war or to fell of the energy cliff. Energy is Policy is a very valid statement.

Author: Gijs Graafland

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