GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS
CHANGES | SHORTER DISTANCES
The one major influence of high energy prices is that any physical movement of people and products increases very much in price, as movement of people/products demands very much of (more and more expensive becoming) energy. PeakOil equals shorter distances: every economist will agree on this. This simple mathematical fact has huge economic impact. As short as 1 year ago we all thought that the economy was reaching it global status and the world market was finally born. But the energy prices spoiled the globalization party. Distances become a burden in economic calculations. The world economy that was born in neighborhoods and has grown to globalization, will contract back to regions. Don't shoot the messenger, but the energy price. No person/business is willing to go bankrupt by taking the past further more as that model has got a total new calculation due to energy price rises. The one thing that escapes from this distances = expensive model is digital. In the digital world there are no distances. Information, knowledge, experience, phone, email, VOIP, videocalling, video meetings: all these will not be effected (on distance facet) by the energy prices. The shorter distances rule of higher energy prices only applies to actual physical movements. In one simple line: energy prices 'tax' distance (transport/travel) severely.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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