GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS
DANGERS | WARS
Resources wars seems/sounds something of the far future. The reality can be different. Iraq is war. Afghanistan is war. Quoting the former president of the Federal Reserve: Mr. Alan Greenspan (not some long haired anti war / anti American liberal) in his book "the age of turbulence": 'the Iraqi war is mainly about oil, it is clear that oil was the primary motive'. War is a nasty danger, seems an 'easy solution' (under pressure everything becomes more liquid). Fighting for energy is not a valid/wise solution. Wars drain economies even further/quicker, war is only good for generals and the military industry, for the rest of the global economy it is a 1000 times bigger waste than the initial amount of costs: destroying in one night the economic process of decades. War is bad for both the national economies and for the global economy. Wars for resources are stupid. Penny wise, pound foolish. They cost energy/productivity, destroy prosperity and creates damages to the survivors (also by the winners): lost, dead, suicide and psychological problems. War for carbon energy is also stupid because carbon deficit nations needs friends, real good friends (as the granting distribution model comes on top of the pricing based distribution model) and with throwing bombs you don't make good friend nor do good global PR. The generals in the 21st century must manage energy (conservation and harvesting) plans and spend half their days with diplomats and scientists and international developers. Soldiers must go to other nations. To do water works. Left their guns at home and bring their knowledge with them. Asians understand this. Americans not yet. The military industrial complex of the 21st century switches completely from defense technology to energy technology. Just for turnover and profit reasons: governmental budgets will implode, energy budgets will explode. And yes: they are very good in technology. They will become the winners of the energy market when they enter it. If the USA defaults on her debts and tries to cut of the foreign lenders by an own controlled Chapter 11 status (the debtor still rules), the foreign lenders (read China and Japan) could not accept this. War in the 21st century is not war like in the 20th century. This is something the Russians understand very good, the Americans (not haven being beaten by 'life' as the Russians) don't understand that. The Chinese are the new kids on the block who will loose their first bed (lending the USA in exchange for market access) severely. When the USA would defaults on her governmental bond loans (the treasury bonds) or on the GSE bond loans (Fannie Mae etc), the Federal Government of China will not survive this huge capital vaporizing, not state budget wise and not internal resistance wise and China will follow the USSR's path in division is separate states. The relatively lack of war has boost the global economy severely, this will end.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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