GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS


ENERGY | VIEW


Our view on both energy in general and energy sources specific is formed historical. This is understandable, yet not adequate, because the energy situation in general is changed severely the last years. Views based on former situations don't fit in totally changed current situations. We need a new view, based on the facets of the actual situation. The historical view was that energy was carbon, abundant available, in attractive great qualities, in attractive good qualities, with low exploration costs, low refinery costs and low distribution costs. This view has become outdated: a photo of a former world. The price facet has awakened us globally and additional in some countries (South Africa, China, India, Nepal, etc, etc) also suddenly and/or controlled (few hours a day) blackouts changed our attitude of taking energy for granted. For the Western World this is unthinkable, but according to the Energy Commissions of more a more western nations something that lays ahead within 5 years. We need a new look on energy. Energy is something that is expensive and which continuity is no longer the default state of quality of service. We need an other view on energy sources. Carbon/fossil based energy is no longer the only affordable energy source due the high prices of it. Energy from alternatives has become equal priced that energy that has a carbon/fossil origin, and as carbon/fossil prices continue to rise by the above in PeakOil mentioned facets, alternatives will even become cheaper than carbon/fossil energy. But the demand for carbon/fossil energy will grow, the reason is that our complete installbase (as in: devices) is carbon/fossil based. Example: We currently don't have electrical cars, but we have current carbon/fossil fueled ones. Energy in the future is direct electricity or hydrogen based warmth/explosion/electricity.


Author: Gijs Graafland


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