GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS


FACTS | INCREASED PROSPERITY


Never in world's history enter a huge number of more than 3 billion new consumers with accelerating purchase power slow but steady the wealthy lifestyle. An enormous crowd of more than 3 billion people enters almost at once together the 'consumer class' (yearly earning of above $ 7000), with the attached cooler, freezer, microwave, airco, computer, TV and car: just the whole nine yards of modern life. Any historical data model is not suitable as the reality outstrips their forecasts results time after time. All projections of the effects of this has been proven too conservative. The number of people that enters wealth the same time is so huge (half the world population) that no research model the impact of this could foreseen. This challenge global energy, global resources and global food supply. Some these cool figures illustrating hot examples? Every 10 days (!) an other gigantic coal to power plant opens in China. A plant with a size that uses a train load of coal a day for the rest of its existence. Global energy (oil, coal, gas and uranium) markets has become very tight and demand is seriously outstripping supply. In China each quarter of the year 2.000.000 million new cars and 600.000 new freight trucks hit the road (and thereby also the gas stations for cars every week and for trucks even every day). Iron ore miners offered mid June 1008 China's steel mills iron ore for the 2008/2009 season for 200% of the price of 2007/2008 season. The Chinese steel mills signed very quick for 196% if the delivery quota would be doubled. Leaving less quick Asian mills with even higher prices and no supply. In China still the common greeting is "do you have eaten today?" illustrating the struggle for life of just some decades ago. China had for centuries a 1 kg meat per inhabitant per year figure. This has in a very short time grown to 50 kg per inhabitant per year. An for an economic data model programmer an unbelievable increase of 50 times. 1 kg Meat = 1000 litre water, 5 kg Wheat = 5000 litre Water (just for the food, the animal water consumption and the water needed for the animal and its waste and the processing/trading of meat not included). Professor John Anthony Allen has made the 'virtual' water use of consumed products more scientifically funded and thereby it gains enormous weight in economic calculations since than. In 1997 the global per capita wheat consumption was 101 kg wheat a year, with the whole world eating 100 kg meat a year, the global wheat production must become at least 550 (5*100 for meat production + 50 for other direct/indirect ways of consumption) kg wheat per capita, a 500% rise (in absolute numbers: old demand value * 5 * new population number = new demand value). Where all this wheat must grow and what water it must irrigate, nobody knows. The USA meat figure is 120 kg per person per year, so the Chinese are even modest compare to Americans. We need the surface of 6 more worlds just to grow wheat for meat if we all will go consuming 100 kg meat a year based on the wheat based intensive meat production method. We need the water of 60 more worlds to irrigate this wheat during growth. More meat only will come from room for 1 kg meat = 0 kg wheat extensive meat production in South America and Africa where is used soil abundant and there is plenty of used soil, but than still the water supply for that is a not to be solved problem for that kind of meat production. And India? India is (due to historical/cultural reasons?) the quiet child in the class, but it outstrips China both in economic growth and resources demand.


Author: Gijs Graafland


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