GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS
HEADWINDS | CURRENCY DEFICITS
The FED is a not democratic ruled or controlled organization, that is certainly acting a major role in the public area, who appoints it's own directors. Only the Chairman of the Board of the FED is appointed by the government. The FED is the organization who controls money supply of the dollar and this way is a major economic actor. In 1979 the economic situation was weak and inflation high due the (it sounds familiar) the than occurring (than OPEC, not supply/demand based) Energy Crisis and (than unwise oversupply of petrodollars by banks to Poland, Turkey, Brazil, etc. based) Credit Crisis. Volcker took office as Chairman of the Board of the FED in 1979 and knows what he has to do: shortening money supply by increasing interest rates, giving a few nasty years, but put the economy back on the rail / made a sick economy healthy, pushes a the economy from consuming on debt to producing for assets. In 1987 Greenspan took office and managed to stay in office till 2006 (a much too long period for one man, with one policy, causing always too long persistent uni-directional effects). Greenspan found money supply not leading, but interest rates. In Joe Doo language: let's leave the sustainable growth path based on production and created a bubble based on credit. As in: start the dollar presses, if we print enough the interest always be low. As in: if we drive hard, it's sure we not having an accident at this very moment: stability the Greenspan way. Greenspan his legacy is that he blow up the credit market by overstretchiness, caused the housing bubble, pushed the economy of the producing for asset growth road into the consumption on cheap credit parking lane and facilitate governmental overspending. He was no equal party for the US Administration the last years of his office. His successor Bernanke is hopeless, this ship will not stay flooding: he will be the last president of the FED, because the mess made by Greenspan is not solvable, it's has grown too big. As always: it takes a war to wreck healthy financial situation. And still we admire war as an economic miracle, not calculating all the hidden costs. Warlords and gambles: they are all the same: the pity losers of economy. Greenspan and Mugabe are made out of the same piece of wood: a total disrespect for creating sustainable economic values by actual production. Living for today, like there is no tomorrow. Today we face the consequences of Greenspan's management of the dollar (cheap credit) in a time where also cheap energy has left us. We're facing expensive credit and expensive energy. Cheap credit that pushed not only households in debt, but also the government (governmental debt is never been as high as it was now). Cheap credit that total defocused the American households and American Administration. And as the going get tough (due the fact that cheap energy has left us) the tough gets going double by the fact we don't have reserves to take us through the economic winter the energy situation will give us, nor left us the possibilities of money creation by debt expansion for addressing the energy situation by energy investment. The word Greenspan will considered a curse within two years from now as journalists starts to research how we got into this mess. Knowing that there are such products as adjustable mortgages in the market that only could be paid by refinancing based on (an once again increased) house value and as the guy who controls it, push it even further is as stupid as it is chicken. Greenspan had no back, he was a weak man, with less, less respect for the situation of the future. Something that's unfortunately very common under old global leaders. A governmental installed unit with no governmental control, lead by one man that was too long in service, have wrecked to global economy and blow up the fractional banking system (as in: all financials). Where we are end 2008. The credit expansion bubble has burst. Pension funds will have to tell their customers that unfortunately an economic accident has happened which has consumed their live time savings. House prices will fall severe and adjust to normal levels (normal is based on nation prosperity levels and a 10% interest rate). Households are ruined. Financials daily on each other funerals. Foreign nations don't know how to get out of the dollar as soon as they want. But the show must go on. Fake things are resistant and let the fairytale still continue. The Open Market Committee of the FED, buys with (to nobody accounted) digital dollars stocks and bonds to get the markets moving. It's no more than a show. The OMC buys governmental bonds and misleading this way the market that there is active demand for such investments. An emergency tool (for situations like in the first days after 9/11) has been misused as a daily tool to support the lifetime of an unsustainable bubble for only a few years. Please the President, wreck the nation. This is also the reason why the US administration has agreed with Greenspan's policies. The one hand washed the other. Once again it's proven: joint responsibility is not responsibility at all for anyone: both parties just can blame the other, while they did it together. The dollar is no longer leading. This is not strange. If you want to be the strongest man in the group, you must stay fit, otherwise new kids on the block will get into leading positions. Greenspan and Bush has totally wrecked the future perspectives of the USA. When the dollar goes down, many dollar back currencies will go with it. In the early days, when Americans where still genius, the convince many Central Banks to buy dollars (we from the dollar, advice the dollar). Diversity is not achieved by many currencies and so the fall of the dollar will also be the fall of many other currencies. Currencies should be obliged to disclose their dollar exposure, any currency that doesn't that should not be trusted anymore. Independent thinking actors, we have missed them a lot. Diversity was a curse for many minds (as in: interest groups). As the dollar falls and the global economy goes down with it (due to major looses everywhere), people will be sick of fake economic growth, growth on credit above real economic earnings based growth will be considered unpopular mumbo-jumbo. People, companies and politicians will long for just one thing: sustainable growth. Not strange as they all just been ripped off of their savings and pension deposits. In 1971 there was also a currency deficit concerning the dollar. Since 1951 the US administration in co-operation with the FED starts to print substantial more dollars than economic growth would/could justify, just to fix trade deficits artificial (and there was an enormous demand for dollars, so the temptation to do this was very appealing). When other nations recognized that and saw there backing decline without having the pleasures of it by themselves, they start to exchange dollars for gold. It's not a pleasure to loose capital in the market, but it's certainly not a pleasure to get robbed by the bank or by the strongest guy in the class. From the gold of the peak in 1949 there was only 22% left in 1971, there was a 'run at the bank' for the last remaining gold. In 1971 the US had a reserve deficit of $56 Billion dollars; it had also depleted almost al non-gold reserves and had only 22% gold coverage of foreign reserves with non coverage for the dollar itself. In short, the dollar was tremendously overvalued with respect to gold, but by the global demand for dollar the US got away with it: being the leading currency has it's benefits, when the US find a dollar strategic partner in the Royal Family of Saudi Arabia, they know that the dollar hegemony with all it's benefits of huge demand for a technically worthless currency would continue for several decades. Saddam his switch to euro's for oil has given him a bad experience. Don't shoot at the hart of someone you can't beat. Iran is experiencing the same pressure as they stop trading oil in dollars and try to convince other oil nations to do so. The dollar is the taxation method the US as empire taxes the world and everybody who attack this free funding of the US printed money debt based consumption, will get severe corrections of the US. It gives the US the possibility to print money with exported (not domestic) inflation. Have less budget limitations by paying the bills with printing the money and get away with it. The dream of each government. The 'run on the bank' end '60ties, begin '70ties forced Nixon unilaterally to cancel the Bretton Woods system and stopped the direct convertibility of the United States dollar to gold (called: closing the gold window). The problem of the '70ties was not so much an Energy Crisis (that was more a geopolitical new kids on the block -read: OPEC is coming also on table of prosperity- issue) although it was the PeakOil event of the (before that) main global supplier, who starts to import oil from 1971 on, but more a Currency Crisis, caused by the 'oeps it's gone, we used it the last 20 years, we did really good things with' attitude of the US Administration that hurt many on the Bretton Woods based national currencies. The amount of gold that's left in the US Bullion Depository in Fort Knox to back the US dollar is still a non disclosed issue. Is their still any gold there, and how much is there still there or is the gold that's mentioned on the FED balance sheets only future based purchased contracts that are backed by dollars again? Most of this gold is 1933 seized against state rate during the Franklin D. Roosevelt Administration in midst of the economic turmoil as there was than. Back to 1971 and Nixon who unilateral cancelled the direct convertibility of the US dollar for gold and the fact that the Bretton Woods nations than take that for granted. The geopolitical setting was back than very different from the geopolitical setting of today. The USA were in the '50ties and '60ties certainly been the economic leading nation of the world and there was also the Cold War issue that straightened the bilateral ties. Both facets are not available today. The Currency Crisis in the '70ties caused by the financial irresponsibility of the several subsequent US administrations is severely forgotten and often not mentioned in describing the problems of the '70ties and '80ties. It was the Cold War, western nations where friend and friend don't talk about mistakes of one of them, and the anti US emotion was by the Vietnam war already at too high levels, so why fuel the fires of the commies? Once again a War (the Vietnam War) wrecked a currency. There was not an actual physical energy crisis, just a mental one ('we're toasted, we need the Arabs and they know we don't respect them very much'). Of course at the end '70ties there was also the problem of banks that had too much petrodollars as deposits from the new wealth of the Arab Nations (which yet in the '70ties actual being paid for the oil they exported), which the banks has lend nit wisely too bad performing 'emerging' (as in: credit willing, not as in: producing) nations, who even could not pay interests as the credit flow stops. And yes the new FED president was the one who had to hit the brakes of this capital waste. And yes, companies and households paid for it by high interest rates. Never give your wallet to an American, you know what will happen, but we don't like knowing crucial historical data that could prevent new accidents for some unknown reason. The housing bubble is the first time that not the funding of a war, but excessive consumer spending pushed a currency off the cliff. At least we've done the consumer part in peace and enjoyed every minute of it. Unfortunately we are faced with the bill of it. This was nor the planning. We were committed to push the bill to our beloved children which we love so much that we're not satisfied with our own luxury, and want also the luxury of their lifetime. So much for love and care. Keynes (inflation scientist) is like salt: use it with wisdom, it tastes great, makes a good meal, but don't use it overdone, the taste disappears and spoils the meal and the kidneys will be damaged severely. Greenspan had better listen to Keynes his economic cycle (7 years up and 7 years down) theory, instead of pushing the US economy to max expansion (and thereby to implosion). The value of the dollar will just be watered with all these huge 'assets' by the massive bailout of stressed bank assets. The super SIV that will act as bailout purchase organization will get more than $ 100 trillion (6 times the GDP of the US in 2007) in liabilities. The current US governmental debt is $ 9.5 trillion and the current US governmental liabilities are $ 46.5 trillion according the calculations of the GAO. If the airline and car industry also will bailed out due the Energy Crisis, the 'capital' position of this Super SIV (or will we call it the recycle bin?) will be doubled. Any currency with a huge dollar exposure (Euro, Yen and Renminbi) will be soaked down with the dollar. The recent value rise of the $ is only caused by large European/Japanese invention. Huge Euro/Yen sales and $ purchases of Europe and Japan (as the 3 nations has agreed March 13, 2008 to do when the $ would slide to $ 1.60). Why the Euro and the Yen have decided to go down with the dollar is a big not to understand question. To USA and the dollar are doomed, but misperception maybe thinks that the USA and Dollar problems can be solved, but that isn't possible: the problems are too huge, both are on the end of their stretchiness. The ECB and Japan should know this, but they don't apparently don't know it. This massive debt bailout can only really avoiding collapse if the foreign debt is convert into forced purchasing power in a 5 year scheme (each year 20%) or a 10 year scheme (each year 10%). A short conversion scheme is better: boosts the US economy severely and that's what it needs right now. A long scheme will lead to replacement of normal payment of current sales. An interest stop certainly must be considered. The US has become a second class world power, the world powers of the 21st century are not the financial debtors (leaking economies, founded -burning- on foreign capital input), but the commodity (energy, water, food) owners (Russia and Brazil). The will 'tax' the world with their trade. Russia is the future of capitalism. The US capitalism is brought down by the capitalists, by overstretching credit. The payment power of the US debt must be overestimated. If their will no debt/goods conversion plan, any bailout is just collecting problems and not solving them. And of course in the Super SIV their will be as much corruption as in the Pentagon. Budgets = Corruption. Large budgets = large corruption possibilities/exposure. Big financial = Mega exposure to soft/hard corruption. The decline of the dollar (and all the to the dollar connected currencies) has to do with the decline of the underlying economies and their perspectives. There is a stretchiness to artificial dollar growth. Other currencies can not replace more than 100% of their reserve currencies by dollars. The consume more than you produce that has brought the dollar down is a time limited event. We face the end of it. Unless the debt/goods convertibility is put in place. That the US could have it new place under the producing sun. Of course with less consumption (as energy, mineral, water and food prices will be severe higher than they used to be. Growth will replaced by local vibrant sustainable prosperity. It's a pity that other currencies doesn't see the fact that the underlying value of the dollar is failing / has failed. Instead of isolating the problem, they now spreading the problem around the globe into other currencies and economies. The US was not a local problem (the US was the world economy), but the problems of the US had to be contained and not spread as new economies gain economic weight. It's a wrong situation that just one board (ECB) can decide to drag the EU even more into the dollar troubles. And the plan is not good: it's no plan, it's trying to extinguish a huge fire with a bucket water, or the ECB must go really far (but than it will be the Law of Archimedes -communicating tubes- in the global financial world. Must EU go done with the US? This is gambling on global level, just decide by a board in Frankfurt, some people has made huge decisions for all the hundreds of millions inhabitants of the EU and on their economic future, without any democracy influence at all. This is not 21st century human/political development, the people of the EU should not accept this dragging of the Euro into the Dollar problems (even if the US temperately has gained some export due to the low dollar, that was/is just a sign of terminal illness of their overall balance sheets). And is a sign that political independent central bankers are even less responsible than governments ever where in their role of money supply, even in times of war when governments did always stupid things with their currency: wars are not equal to stable currencies. The ECB should help their US counter partner is finding a good solution. What is the one and only good solution out of all this? A combination of the installation of a Super Debt SIV, a swift of money creation from the FED back to the Federal Government, an Export Finance Fund, an Energy Fund and a Municipal Finance Fund. The Super Debt SIV: The creation of a super Debt SIV that can purchase all stressed bank debts. Resistance in bailout the airline industry and the car industry directly (as their problems are global, not specific US, and have other causes). Some kind of sanctioning for the banks that sell 'assets' to this Super Debt SIV. A stop on interest can be put in place, but this will face global resistance, and is therefore maybe not wise to propose. On the other hand: the debt has two parties: the financials as debtors and the owners as lenders. Maybe this Super Debt SIV only must purchase only debts with mutual agreement between both debtor and lender. Than the sanction for the banks and the conditions for the owner can be set in mutual agreement (by a standard not negotiating model). Demands of the Super Debt SIV to the banks? 1) Production of honest balance sheets based on actual values (based on published financial measures). 2) Shares reshuffling based on real values (as it is a refinance tool). 3) The Super Debt SIV gets share equal to the refinanced debt (with recalculation if later on new balance sheets prove that the old once where not good and an extra fine for that). 4) Lenders must agree in transfer the debt to the Super Debt SIV. Demands if the Super Debt SIV? A) Agreement on the transfer of the debt to the Super Debt SIV. B) Lower interest rate or even interest stop (a general mandatory rule, not negotiable). C) A mandatory convertibility of 20% of the debt a year into purchase of US produced goods. D) A default option of 50% payment and 50% goods (if the second part of this proposal -the FED part- also is done). A short period will prevent full interexchange between debts and the current order flow, because that will not lead to extra orders and would not boost the demand for US production and the US would not gain payment power again). The other part of the solution is the return of the money creation to the government. The FED has in her 95 years of existence never granted any auditing request of the Congress. Amendment 16 is never ratified as constitutional requested by 75% the States. See the historical research on this: Kentucky her archives shows a vote against and was listed Federal as a vote in favor, many states doesn't even have voted on the 16th amendment. Wikipedia: 'in 1909 Congress proposed the Sixteenth Amendment, which became part of the Constitution in 1913 when it was ratified by the required number of states'. The current dollar is already fiat (not by anything backed, but on market demand and trust based) currency. The gold in Fort Knox (seized from the common US population as currency backup on April 5, 1933 by Executive Order of President Roosevelt, after insiders already/first has transferred their own ownership of their gold abroad) is never full audited since 1954. So it's not clear if there is any gold there and if there is left some gold there who owned it. The commission that advised Reagan on the gold standard possibilities write in their report that the gold that still is left in Fort Knox had been in ownership changed to the FED 'due collateral reasons' of the state debt. Both the resistance of FED book auditing and the resistance of an one day full gold absent and ownership auditing at Fort Knox tells enough. The FED must be seized overnight and assets that has been moved or let off must be corrected. Private ownership of the money creation system was a stupid idea, installing a bank cartel that lend the government the money the government has allowed them to print. Paying interest by the government on debts that are based on fiat created money is to odd for words. Seizing the FED. Gradually paying the governmental debts by the new created money with equally retracting the fractional bank ratio's so that the same amount of money stays in the system. Of course this must be followed by tight constitution like regulation on the governmental money creation capacity, outlining the borders of a healthy fiat currency system. Legislation that forbids any seized FED official to be involved in the BIS (Bank of International Settlements) as the BIS being a non-democratic and non-governmental financial body that holds to much (not politically controlled) international economic power. A cartel the EU must forbid, although the doesn't apply to EU laws, the US has also moved by the Sherman Act the 90% of the global diamond market controlling diamond cartel De Beers out of the US. The BIS is a cartel that gives it's members severe knowledge benefits the profit from artificial created sudden market movements: insight trading at macro scale. We don't need old bros based networks any more, we need open parliaments controlled democratic transparency. This solution could use also additional an Export Finance Fund, an Energy Fund and a Municipal Finance Fund. Europe and China could realize a same set of solutions, if the Euro and the European banks and the Renminbi and the Chinese banks are too much effected by the US situation. Results? No debts anymore, no fractional banking any more (more stable economy), less income tax (as the IRS tax we pay now almost completely is used to pay interest on the federal governmental debt, with will be gone than), no inflation anymore and municipals can address the PeakOil related problems of making their local economies vibrant prosperous. If this set of solutions not is taken, we will face collapses and chaos. The results? No collapse (as collapse is not about lost of values/assets, but only transfer of values/assets to insight knowledge), less income taxes (as the State Debt will disappear: so more household wealth and corporate strength), less debt (so less interest payments: so more household wealth). The US citizen faces today to mayor financial pressures related to FED designed interest: 1) Income Tax: that is used 100% for interest payments on the unnecessary interest on federal governmental debt (the new expenses are funding by higher debt), as the federal government has giving away in 1913 her own right to issue money to the FED, who now can let her shareholders/beneficiaries charge interest on the printed money for the governmental debt. Each American works 3 till 4 months (30.8% GDP according to the Tax Foundation) a year to pay the interest on the governmental debt to a company that has seized the right to issue this debt from the government in 1913. 2) Debt Interest: as Income Tax takes away 3 till 4 (30.8% GDP according to the Tax Foundation) months of each income, going into debt is a logical consequence / appealing temptation. But debt costs interest. 3) Inflation: Those who haven't debts, don't pay interest, but pay inflation. Money gets less worth every year. Inflation is the best tool to get capital from cash into digital bank accounts (where it by interest earning is protected against inflation). The best customer binding and engine for fractional banking is inflation. 4) VAT: The use of VAT is everywhere different, as the destination of the budget is. In the US VAT funds local/state government. In the EU VAT funds the supernational government. Conclusion: It's mathematically safe to say that each American works 50% of the year just because Wilson in 1913 pushed the FED law to Congress on Christmas Eve. This is a modern time version part-time slavery, something that will no longer accepted in the 21st century. "By this means extra-government organizations may secretly and unobserved, confiscate the wealth of the people, and not one man in a million will detect the theft." (The Economic Consequences of the Peace, John Maynard Keynes, 1920). Due to PeakOil economies will be contracted in distance or reach. The future of the 21st century is local due the fact that local models has the best energy/prosperity ratio's. This transition can be done gradually by the above described solution of will be born out of chaos (much more headwind for everybody). Local currencies and local taxes are the two words of the 21st century. Federal can gradually flow into local, or Federal will be abolished with an economic/financial big bang, or Federal enforce local influence on micro level (law against local currencies etc.), but Federal and PeakOil are certainly contrary movements in economy/society. The latest development on the global currency front (as in: war) is that the South American nations has agreed to trade more in mutual currencies and less in the dollar. To facilitate this they will initiate an own 'BIS-like structure' who can clear trade balance differences mutually. A open not one currency specific favoring system, that will boost the economy of South America. Resources always come with wealth and the rise of the currencies of the owners. The health of a currency is directly attached to a) national deficit/surplus of resources, b) geopolitical power (often attached to a) or c) international cooperation (the powerless, yet effective version of b). The world in the 21st century will be superpower less. The economy of the world is starting to de-hubing. Regional international cooperation clusters will gain at the cost of superpowers (as in: the one remaining superpower: the USA). The only superpowers of the 21st century will be: Russia and Brazil. They have anything a nation/economy needs. Energy, minerals, soil and water. The empire of today (the USA) taxes the world by its currency. The Empires of the 21st century (Russia and Brazil) tax the world by energy and food delivery. Real values will rule the market again. Assets will be king, not debts. The 21st century will be a century of massive migration of populations to natural environments that can feed better/wealthier life with all the migration attached tensions, problems and human suffering. Energy, water, minerals and food (concentrated water and soil use) can be bought and transported (or locally produced/harvested by devices). The problem is purchase power to buy and transport, or buy the needed devices. People will migrate to parts of the world where they can make purchase power. Purchase power is the problem of the 21st century in PeakX or PeakEverything. Nations that base their purchase power not on production, but on debt, robbery and/or currency demand have no future, they even harm themselves as they grow weaker instead of stronger. The Third Reich had no future: they forgot to produce and went robbing (besides the fact that it was already moral bankrupted on the day it began). Holland was the global power of the 17th century. They forgot to produce and invest their wealth in England. The rest is history. The Bank of England (the historic role model for all central banks) is founded by members of the Bank of Amsterdam. When the French occupied Amsterdam the complete deposit of the Bank of Amsterdam was away. Officially meltdown in losses of the first international company of the world named the VOC, but in the books of the VOC this huge capital input never is found. Producing is growing strong and delivering continuity. Robbing the world or the own nation has only a short life line. Major currencies are based on trust. Major currencies face a severe hard time, as they undermine themselves severely. Trust must be earned, build, not taken away. The web 2.0 model (everybody can publish to day, smartness in information publishing has become the competitor of power in the world) airs all information (also the information that undermines trust). Information and currencies were never friends. The story of the 21st century is that people only will trust values they can actual check in daily live on their viability. Big will be equal to corrupted. The story of the 21st century is abandon the 20th century structures in power and currency (where equal in the 20th century) as they are more and more exposed as moldered from the edge to the center and from out the center to the edge. Gold will become a huge competitor for asset/wealth backup/storage. Not for currencies backed by gold (history has showed that the gold always has been disappeared), but for ordinary people wealth backup/storage. The banking industry (and thereby currencies) will play a less smaller role in the 21st century, than it has have in the 20th century. Continuity will no longer be taken for granted. Global currencies will been seen as production tool, no longer as asset, therefore currencies will lost the trust they need to much. Russian Treasury has a stockpile of dollars (approximately $ 550 Bn). They can afford to write them down instead of keeping them, or even profit of it. They can cause the fall of the dollar in one day by both offering loads of dollars on the market for low prices and the same time going short (betting on value decline of the dollar). The US has done this end of the '80ties with the ruble, delivering them the collapse of the purchase power of the ruble (and thereby the USSR) and giving by the combination of going short also a profit and cheap oil purchase. Russia was end of the '80ties the biggest oil producer of the world with a production of 11.8 million barrels a day, according to the Soviet Legacy on Russian Petroleum Industry case study of the University of Texas. So Russia certainly will sometimes in the future make this US-Russia currency goal status from 1-0 to a 1-1. And also the US-Russia oil price damage (which was also 1-0 due the price lowering efforts of the US end of the 80ties), to a 1-1 by sometime in the future an active price increasing policy/strategy of Russia. Russia is certainly able to push global oil/gas prices to much more higher levels (and hurting the US economy by that) by going closed long on oil/gas. Going closed long is about 'betting' on future high prices by purchasing own allotments though third parties. Currency is also about invisible taxation of the users by the issues by inflation. China has with its $ 1.8 trillion assets in her State Administration of Foreign Exchange also a financial nuclear device for the dollar on stock (current growth ratio $ 400 billion per year). Currently already used for geo/national politics in the Costa Rica case: Costa Rica has cut ties with Taiwan and get involved in China Mainland just because the Chinese State Administration of Foreign Exchange support the governmental budget (purchasing bonds) of Costa Rica. The invention of the Yen and the Euro into the Dollar (Euro was $ 1.6, is by this intervention back to $ 1.4) will be listed as the act of given up own strength. The Yen and the Euro has trade their strength and healthiness in for joining Dollar problems. The problems of the Dollar are beyond intervention possibilities. Two Central Bankers (Europe and Japan) doesn't understand that and wreck this way two mayor world currencies. Intervention in the Dollar value is carrying water to the sea. Both Masaaki Shirakawa (Governor Bank of Japan) and Jean-Claude Trichet (Director European Central Bank) are 1) or blind for the fact that the dollar can't be rescued, or 2) no party for the FED/BIS powers, or 3) 1 and 2 together. One man's decision has ruined the future of Japan. One man's decision has ruined the future of Europe. To much power concentrated (and not democratic controlled/steered) can have severe economic consequences for nations/continents.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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