GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION | AUTHOR
Gijs B. Graafland is a corporate/governmental strategist with a steady extending global reach/impact and the founder of Planck Foundation. Many CEOs, CFOs, bankers, investors, politicians, governmental organizations, development organizations, pension funds and investment funds take his view on current statuses and future perspectives in serious account. His capability of consuming continuous loads of information while keeping both all this information and the whole picture open are unique. By this he's able in analyzing very quick/natural existing and possible connections and relative contexts between several different global developments. Not only analyzing current situation and future developments, but also projecting possibilities, policies and scenarios. The draft of his Global Resources Analysis has been released in April 2008 and is already read 1.500.000 times by decision makers globally in only 3 months time. Even several PMs and central bankers around the world has consumed his Global Resources Analysis | Situation 2008 and get in contact with him and change policies after that. The comprehensive characteristic of his analyses and the policies/scenarios he developed based on it, combined with the type of his audience, certainly make him a substantial influencing factor/actor on future global developments. Graafland is in a pure intellectual conflict with the US Department of Homeland Security, as he (although he like's the US, the Americans and the roots of the USA very much) on university lectures also emphasized that the USA (certainly from energy security point of view) doesn't handle it's power wisely (acting imperialistic) using freedom as cover, while tearing down the free, open society at their homeland by the Department of Homeland Security and the (very unpatriotic and anticonstitutional) Patriot Act I and II. He warns for (both the short and long run) severe damage this brings for the USA, certainly from their very important energy security politics point of view. Because when energy prices reach their maximum market level and the price mechanism doesn't work any more in as rationing tool, the granting tool will build on top of it: selling for maximal prices only to friends. The US as bully 'friend' (a 'friend' that point a gun at you will be left by the first change for that) than will have not many real friends and gets abrupt in deep trouble after already being economic drained by high prices. South Korea and China act much more cleaver: sending a lot of professors/engineers/teachers instead of bomb/soldiers and building real mutual beneficiary relations with energy surplus nations. Real friends have the nerve to tell you the truth. DHS doesn't understand that. Furthermore: the folks who designed and implemented Homeland Security just didn't do their homework very good, being rather more enforced (freedom restrictive) followers than independent (organic security developing) thinkers. Emergencies (9/11) brings always bad legislation (Patriot Act I and II) and bad institutions (DHS: Department of Homeland Security). Innovation certainly needs free thinking and communication environment as life needs oxygen. Governments are not well known as inventors, nor as real economic values (equals technology and production) creating motors, although most governments think that they are very good at both (and by that shows that they doesn't understand the concept of government at all). Graafland has made his money with technological investments (although he isn't quiet a cold technocrat) in IT, the Internet, process automation, energy and water and live a very much out of the spotlights type of life. He reads a lot on actual and historical development from various sources (not only the New York Times, but also the London Times, the St. Petersburg Times, the Tehran Times and the Beijing Times, etc). He is no green anti-prosperity hippie (although catch him in a suite is something not very often can be seen), contrary he argues time after time that each city should have it's own internet exchange, as the Internet current topology can be whipped out by just placing 100 semtex containing servers in the current concentrated internet hubs of the world, blowing us back into the dark ages with one php/mysql driven webpage screen button. Semtex dogs that makes quarter of a year frequent rounds in the hub datacenters is certainly no luxury, yet not practiced yet. Graafland has almost no public appearance, don't do news shows, webcasts, seminars, congresses and round tables, does only private 1 to 1 and board sessions. He is mainly travelling and analyzing economies and cultures. Graafland prefers to think and speak in his mother language and therefore has always a translator to the local language with him, so he gets in real contact with the local people of a nation and adopt as many local economic and technological information he can. He abstain all media contacts persistent as 'broadcasting is not inventing, just copying', 'publicity erodes quality of research, analysis and contacts' and 'journalists must learn read and research developments again as they used to do and not just searching/running for a quick quote'. If companies, organizations or governments wants some days of pointed to goals assistance in realizing change of policies, teams mostly lead by Paul Daemen (known as 'the bulldozer', 'don't talk me around' and 'realizing real changes is not exactly high tea') will been flown-in instead of Graafland. For making both the Global Resources Analysis and the Global Future Analysis as realistic as they must be, Graafland has lived one full year as we all will live several years from now: less car rides, less plain flights, more train rides, stimulating high prices of the future by artificial cutting his monthly spending budgets severely. Therefore both the analyses are not theoretic academic specialistic, but just comprehensive realistic focused. Graafland is currently developing the twelve needed response models to the developments described in his two analyses: the Action Model, the Communication Model, the Localization Model, the Production Model, the Mobility Model, the Transport Model, the Currency Model, the Privacy Model, the Peace Model, the Political Model, the Knowledge Model and the Finance Model: models for pipelining and facilitating the coming change. Models that take care that no energy and time will be wasted in searching for directions. By the use of these models this energy can even be multiplied instantly. Facilitating and multiplying changing of policies was the vision behind the development of the Models. There is globally so much RWA (Ready, Willing and Able) changing power available by companies, governments, organizations, municipals and people. These huge (and diversified: therefore very strong) powers just need models to multiplex these powers. Currently these powers burns dry by the lack of valid/effective models. These powers could be multiplexed when they are find the right models to react on these challenges. On foreign policy Graafland his plea is to transform the military to real peace corps (US Aid II besides the current US Aid I) that support a new US foreign policy concentrated on building sustainable relations with energy surplus nations, by sending the guns to home and supporting realizing national/regional/local development in those nations. Than the US will gets it imago back it has lost by being lately the selfish bullish guy in the global class and really/sustainable secures energy supply when the granting based distribution system comes on top of the price based distribution system as energy prices will reach their economic maximum (where that will be nobody knows yet, but it probably will be around $ 500, oil more expensive that price barrier will be left unexplored). Graafland has started Planck Foundation in 1999 as result of his research in the area of global development dated back to the early '80ties. First as an incubator for funding/supporting global targeting state of the art and/or solutions barriers further pushing technological, societal and economic forerunning corporate concept mainly high technological driven. During these almost 10 years of existence research, development and communication of the R&D results became more and more the most important activity of the Planck Foundation. The current agenda of Planck Foundation is creating global awareness on (and practical answers to) the effects on economies/societies of the Credit Crisis, Energy Crisis and the Water Crisis.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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