GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS
PROBLEMS | WEAK LEADERSHIP
There is certainly a lack of wise leadership in governmental, energy corporations and financial corporations. Maybe an example says more than anything else. In Holland we have 1) a Minister of Treasury who claims that the credit and oil crisis will have no impact at all on the national economy and therefore on the governmental finance, 2) a Minister of Economy who time after time say there is no energy problem, that there is oil/energy enough (even after the CEOs of Shell, Total, etc already have stated that the times of cheap and abundant oil are over), 3) a PM who worships Mr. Bush so openly, that it is even embarrassing for even the PM during his visit supporting media. This leaves Holland with 1) severe future financial problems, 2) severe future energy problems and 3) severe future disturbed geopolitical relations. quite a team that deepens the future problems of Holland in turbulent times completely necessary by a lack of analysis, vision, policies and leadership. Major oil corporations are an other example of weak leadership (also based by no vision and policies). The best thing they can do it splitting themselves in functional (and even maybe national) units. The shareholders will get a 200% increased value. The split-up of Standard Oil in 1911 has showed that separate units have more value, produce more profits and function much more better. The boards of the major oil corporations are trapped in their past. All the major oil corporations are peaked already in production. They just maintaining the market position as long as this will go (yet an other 10 years, of they doesn't face new governmental seizers of the their investments). For example Shell her strategy is realizing large technological advanced projects: the state controlled companies really likes Shell's involvement by it's knowledge, experience, capacity and capital. But as soon the money starts rolling they will we cut off anywhere the can be cut off or/and face total new taxes. Every nation does this. Even Canada has installed a water tax and tapping this way the windfall profits of the tarsand companies. The big and strong ones of yesterday are the big and vulnerable ones of tomorrow. Splitting up will give 10 till 100 new strong companies out of one retiring mother company, which these days spend a lot of their windfall profits in purchasing their own stocks for the sake of the bonus of the CEO and his team. The by split-up created more vital daughters will also contain new energy companies. The best way to grow is to have young strong and independent and focused children. Paulson (Secretary of State of the US) tries to fix the leaks in the system, but he is just/only putting some buckets of water on a huge fire. Strong leadership in the US would stop to act if there was a problem in some rooms and start saying that the house is in fire. That's the situation, not less, not more. Calling/naming the things as they are is the first step in strong leadership.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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