GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS
TAILWINDS | NEW MODELS
As energy prices rise, old models become old fashion, answers to a passed away situation, no longer serving right to the actual needs and there will sprout demand for new models: space for new models sprouts automatically and new models when initiated will push the old models of the market as no longer efficient. Examples? Far distance air travel based holidays will be replaced by shorter distance experiences. Location bound meetings will replaced by videocallings and videomeetings. Showroom based sales (where presentation and personal advices both are important) will be replaced by (completely commission based) local salesmen supported by an online presentation/configuration/ordering environment. Going to the office in the city will be replace by doing the work that must be done at home or in a suburban local dedicated joint office facility. Post and parcel services will make joint ventures with public transportation models, to cut on transportation costs and increase/maintain frequencies. The internet structure will change, the old few hubs model, will be replaced by a new very much hubs based model. The office structures will change, online (internet, phone, videophone) productivity will replace (commuting and traffic congestion based) presence as office productivity model. International companies and national companies faces tough times, unless they adapt new models based on local/regional assembling. Anything, ant action that these days cost a lot of energy and can be replaced by local/regional low energy models will be replaced, just by costprice driven facets. The strange thing of all of this is: Everything what and everyone who is now important will become less important and there is nothing to stop this development (unless they can fix the Credit Crisis and the Energy Crisis overnight). Dino's will be dino's unless they change to fast and easy moving antelopes. Local will promote from the place where we spend the night or stay between car rides the place we live life to the max. The energy industry and the digital hardware industry will stay huge and global. Any other industry will fragmentized in local/regional solutions, not as wanted policy, but as method of surviving in times of expensive energy prices. Mass media her market share in media consumption time will fall dramatically. The focus of people will be even big on local than it will be on global. Web 2.0 (digital engines where people can publish very easily) will gain even more influence than they already have today. Web 2.0 weaken the reach/power of mass media, enforces the power/reach/effect of advertisers (by the possibility of more accurate targeting).
Author: Gijs Graafland
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