GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS
TAILWINDS | TRADE DEFICIT AWARENESS
Energy deficit nations suffering from strong increasing trade deficits in times of PeakOil. Currently 33% of the trade deficit of the US is caused by energy imports, and as the oil price rises, both this percentage and the total trade deficit rise simultaneously. Trade deficits are bad because is a process of building foreign debts, a process with a limited time frame, somewhere, sometime, they must be paid and more quick than possible. Ukraine is a good example of a state with a huge trade deficit with Russia, which is struggling continuous on the cut off edge of payments. Globally governments are very aware of the effect of PeakOil on their trade deficits. Oil addiction was not a problem in times of cheap oil, but in times of expensive oil, it's an expensive addiction, that costs a lot of prosperity. The oil part of trade deficits is just subsidizing the producing countries with the prosperity you've worked for. Own renewable energy generation will be equal to stopping exporting wealth or stopping building external debts. Trade deficits have some elastic, but have certainly and end marker somewhere down the line which results in supply cut, which results in economic chaos and heavy pressure on the government that is cut off by its own companies and civilians.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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