GLOBAL RESOURCES ANALYSIS
DANGERS | GEOPOLITICAL BLOCKS
The Warsaw Pact ended after the collapse of the old USSR in 1991. The NATO is becoming more and more divided by two policy directions (the wolfs and the doves, military versus diplomacy). Member states taken passively more and more distance from the USA offensive strategies: each year there are more difficulties in finding new troops for extra NATO soil actions, which makes NATO's offensive strategy more and more only US based. Single nation invading actions, are not considered legitimate in geopolitical terms. The NATO has it birth ground and reason of existence in multilateral fear for communism. But communism as economic (and therefore political) model has passed away. NATO also will pass away, just like the Warsaw Pact. New geopolitical blocks will be formed and their influence will grow. The old geopolitical world order with mostly by the Western World dominated international organizations will disappear. Old structures (IMF, WorldBank, etc.) will not reform (changes takes to much friction and energy), new structures will just puss the old structures out of the market. The US and Russia will loose their veto rights in the UN, due to this new world balances. The OPEC has it second life period and is getting both more and more important (as a collection of important suppliers and joint voice), as more and more not important (as organization, while just supply and demand dictates completely the market mechanism). But OPEC members more and more get the picture that (also fake) tensions increase their income more and more. The OPEC will gain in importance as negotiating organization between members concerning tensions and conflicts of interest (and that conflict of interest is certainly not any longer the market: supply has gained her dominance for ever). Not one OPEC member is against high oil prices any more, not even the rational nation of Saudi Arabia. There is only one catholic/western member of the OPEC and this nation don't get each days flowers of western states, but is punished with isolation. The Western World really don't realize the huge problems which her energy deficit will cause them the next years. There will be an Islamic Geopolitical Organization. But there is a lot of internal competitor ship between leadership, the Islamic World must learn that geopolitical organizations not is about who is boss, but about enforcing common interests. There certainly will be a South American Organization. The Venezuelan Administration and their diplomats are working by diplomatic regular traffic and targeted contacts very intense on the creation of such an organization. They are backed fully by Mr. Chavez his personal drive for increased South American self awareness. The US certainly will pay their fines for their political behavior in Central and South America in the last 100 years. Stay stocked in bully attitudes in South American bilaterals is the last thing the US needs right now in times of PeakOil. Asia will have its own Pan Asian Organization. Europe becomes more and more an European Union. Russia with its new leader President Dmitry Medvedev will face a new self aware and more open and bilateral focused. Mr. Medvedev has a legal education and experience and was both the legal advisor of the former President of Russia Vladimir Putin, as the second highest Gazprom chairman. Energy will be the glue between Europe and Russia. PeakOil will both speeds up the creation of these blocks (as they are needed for realization and ensuring the new HVDC power infrastructures) and make them lean and mean. In times of PeakOil federally structures just get some limited federal tasks and will just perform these tasks. PeakOil certainly will speed up the process of International Armies. When governmental budgets are hit by negative economic growth (less income, more costs), the national armies will considered to become to expensive and completely out dated concepts in times where wars are fight pure economic. Armies also are expensive branches of government in economic not very easy times. A small EU Army will be formed with the size of just one nation army. The weapon industry will certainly come in dire straits and will (under stockholders' pressure) change completely to both energy technology and glass technology. Russia, Qatar and Iran have together 56% of the world's natural gas reserves. If they make an alliance with Algeria (and they will), they become very powerful. Gazprom has by a deal with the Italian energy giant Eni already the Libya natural gas reserves and also the African-Europe natural gas pipe already covered. End April 2008 they've put Eni to the front for buying the current European transnational natural gas infrastructure. Who has the resources is the dominator, it's a simple as that. The USA has had that time in the prosperity sun. Now it's Russia's time in the prosperity sun. A natural gas 'OPEC' type of multilateral cooperation will certainly be realized in the coming year. When Russia, Qatar, Algeria and Iran decide to lift the natural gas prices above market supply/demand based prices (with the motivation that natural gas is a finite resource and that it is in the interest of the world economy (conversation of a finite resource) and climate change to limited the supply to the world, the world should have to except that. New blocks will be formed, even just to close bad payment habits out of their deliveries. To have is to rule, to need is to serve. The new reality, that's even not new. Global politics is based on this truth since the beginning of geopolitics. Most of the new blocks will not be based on politics or ideology, but there will be wheat blocks, corn blocks, nickel blocks, blocks of the suppliers of any commodity where demand outstrips supply severely. Commodities are the new politics and the new ideology. Certainly the god of capital will replace the god of religion as much in Islamic Nations as it has done in the Western World. Wealth and religion are opposite powers. One of the reasons the Western World could have a religious reveal when prosperity is by energy purchases transferred to other nations.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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