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When the going gets tough, the tough gets going. The more tensions, the chance for events. Events that could function as the sparks that turns tensions into wars. The sparks that eliminate rationality and triggers emotional impulse reactions. Small things become big things in already stressed bilateral relations. Examples? World War I started with an assault on just one governmental representative in just one country. There are more possible sparks to describe than there is space for in this situation analysis. And even some not very well thinking politician could spark a lot in geopolitics. Natural gas delivery cut offs could be a huge spark. Or a new nuclear accident. Or an actual bankruptcy of a central government or currency. Or just some more talking than thinking politician.

Author: Gijs Graafland

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