GLOBAL RESOURCES ANALYSIS
DANGERS | GEOPOLITICAL TENSIONS
There are so many causes of geopolitical tension possible in times of PeakOil and Climate Change. But even today there are several severe geopolitical tensions build up. Tensions build up or disappear as time pass by. Even today there are more examples than wishful thinking wishes. The Independence Declaration of the Kosovo province from Serbia in February 2008 is a good example of a tension increasing situation. Also first the USSR and later on the USA invasion of Afghanistan. The USA had supported the resistance against the USSR troops during the 1978 till 1989. But in 2001, (surprisingly) only 2 months after 9/11, the USA organized a multilateral invasion in this very rich in elements country, which also heavily was needed as pipe trespassing carrier for a natural gas pipe line for Unicoal from Central Asia to the high seas for making export possible. The negotiations with the Taliban concerning the pipeline and its protection where reaching a deadlock in the summer of 2001. There are rumors that the current Afghan President is Hamid Karzai was one of the Unicoal negotiators in the pipeline talks with the Taliban. This statement made by Le Monde is not confirmed by other sources. But it's a fact that Unicoal needed trespassing in Afghanistan or Iran to reach the high seas and that their negotiations with the Taliban reached a deadened in the summer of 2001. Karzai certainly was a CIA supported freedom fighter and CIA liaison officer during the 11 years of USSR domination of Afghanistan. In 2003 the Afghanistan invasion was followed by the (again multilateral again) invasion to Iraq by the Western Allies lead by the US. Possible motivations (quoting Alan Greenspan): switching oil payments away from dollars to euros and rich oil reserves, and not the for PR reasons mentioned WMD (Weapons of Mass Destruction) because US intelligence reports had already multiple stated that Iraq didn't have such weapons and was also not capable anymore in producing them. Hussein is removed, the nation is in chaos. The war is started with no post war plan. The US administration in '40ties and '50ties have down in Europe a severe better job after World War II, one (honestly earned) reason why European Governments always has been very supportive to the US. The North Pole and the South Pole and their natural resources are certainly a huge geopolitical tension danger. The first claiming moves are done by some nations and have disturbed other nations. Certainly now the North Pole from 2013 on seems to become completely an open ice free sea for several months a years, and the (severe more expensive, but by high oil prices certainly becoming economic) both deep sea and cold water drilling and underwater flexible piping techniques are improving more and more.
Author: Gijs Graafland
Back to Dangers Index
Download the full Global Resources Analysis report in PDF