GLOBAL RESOURCES ANALYSIS
DANGERS | REGIONAL SPARKS
The decision of the Israeli Government not to fuel the power plants of the Gaza Strip. One young not wise politician who make a not very clever statement. The cut off of deliveries to the Ukraine by Gazprom due by Gazprom claimed high payment backlogs on deliveries. Ukraine doesn't deny that statement and reverse it (back to USSR times). But 80% of the Gazprom deliveries are transited though Ukraine and Gazprom is becoming more and more the natural gas supplier of Europe. Last time there was a payment conflict between Ukraine and Gazprom, and Ukraine was cut of supply, Ukraine just connect their natural gas infrastructure to the transit pipelines of natural gas to Western Europe. Ukraine has promised no to do so in the future. This 'transit nations are also customer nations' issue is the reason that Gazprom has decided to build a new pipeline through the East Sea, which will come onshore in Holland, bypassing the East European countries. Russia is certainly not forgotten that they have been spitted in the face by their former compulsory 'alliances'. Russia and East Europe must develop new relations that bring a stable and wealthy Europe and a stable and wealthy Russia. East European states must or pay Gazprom or go into energy transition, or (more realistic) do both. Biting the hand that energizes your country is not a wise thing to do. Russia will accept bull talk of former USSR member states, Russia and Gazprom will not accept both payment delays and bull talk. While Europe is talking about building natural gas lines while they're gas deficit, Russia and Iran just divide the further market between them to, forming a natural gas cartel. Gazprom even will realize the gas pipe from Africa to Europe. Russian politics is action politics. European politics is talking politics. The secondary (out of Russian influence) Nabucco gas pipe line to Europe will never be realized (and if it will, there will no gas to transport for the line): Russia don't talk to much, Russia just has gas and writes contracts with needed transit nations in exchange of supply. And if it would be realized it will be a gas less pipeline. Belarus and Russia are in a conflict over the gas price. By the law of market polarity change, it's almost certain that Russia will win this argument. The by supply/demand formed world prices will become the leading prices in all transactions. Buyers enough, why sell to someone who want pay less or pay late? Natural gas deliveries will feed a lot of the regional tensions and cutting of natural gas supply could be huge sparks. Russia just can say to Europe if their conflict with Ukraine will not be solved and Ukraine again connects their gas infrastructure to the transit pipes to Europe: "We measure volumes by our border departure, that volume must be paid, Europe, fix the Ukraine problem." Just like natural gas, also water will be due to damming, extreme irrigation, pollution are huge sources of sparks (suddenly draughts, suddenly pollutions). Fortunately sparks needs high tensions to lead to explosions (as in: war) otherwise they're just lame light flashes.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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