GLOBAL RESOURCES ANALYSIS


EFFECTS | GEOPOLITICAL CHANGES


Consumption must have an economic wealth production source, otherwise it has no roots. With out roots it's just eating its own future or third party their future and that of course doesn't stand for long. The emerging countries produce real economic values: products, energy, elements, fertilizers and food for the western world. And they get wealthier day by day. After subprime almost all economists are convinced that the emerging countries finally will own the huge stock listed western banks and companies. When the US can not longer finance their interest payments and new budget deficits, the 'banks' will become in charge. Forcing them to take all the measures the World Bank in the past had forced countries in financial problems to do so. But this time it will not the World Bank (an institute of the past, which may be will reinvent themselves by the energy crisis), but OPEC or China who will decided what financial measures must be taken by the US government and which leaders have their trust, otherwise they will stop financing. This is not a far away scenario. End of February 2008, some local governments were not able to finance their needed capital. The US will get a huge backfire of their more spending than earning model. Such a model has a limited life time and was based on global supply of and demand for US dollars. But this also will become reality in energy, elements, fertilizers and food. There are certainly levels that represent the maximum price of a product, when a price get higher, the market for the product implodes because to fewer buyers than can afford that prices. So first to by supply and demand driven market prices mechanism will work, but that mechanism has the before described maximum price ceiling. After maximal stretchiness of the price based market distribution mechanism, an additional market distribution mechanism will be grow on top of the supply/demand price based model and that is the on granting or allocating based model: sales will be narrowed to just the friendly nations (of course still for the product specific maximal prices). The geopolitical balances of the world will also under go a polarity change, only several years later than the market polarity change. The nations with a lot of debts, and/or current budget deficits, and/or no own energy resource, and/or no own element resources, and/or fertilizer and food import needs, and/or not energy efficient, and/or no element efficient, and/or has no fertilizer replacement will become completely depend on their goodwill of the nations which are willing and able to provide them capital, energy, elements and food. Beneath oil, of course elements, agricultural area, deserts and the sun are the key national economic values of the future. The OPEC countries will have (by their high natural resources and low population numbers) in the near future the same in terms of wealth more consumption than producing attitude the US and Europe characterize the last 25 years, till the resources are sold out and they have got their time in the economic sun. Nations like Russia, Nigeria and Venezuela has some severe problems to address before their economies/societies have a stable wide middle class prosperity.


Author: Gijs Graafland


Back to Effects Index


Download the full Global Resources Analysis report in PDF