GLOBAL RESOURCES ANALYSIS
HEADWINDS | BUSINESS MODELS
The complete on Cheap Oil based economic, societal, governmental, corporate, private models of function are out dated in times of Expensive Oil. Expensive energy demands other models. The problem is that other models means changes and people, companies and governments don't like changes very much. The reason for this is simple: Changes means reshuffling, reshuffling means position risk. But the on Cheap Energy based models are worthless (even negative) in completely opposite changed times of Expensive Energy. Losing old models is losing a burden. But losing old models will be not easy. The good old models of the past are certainly a head wind in severely changing times of PeakOil. An example: We're use to go from the suburb to the city to work. That's what we are. That's what we know. We hate traffic congestion and we love it the same time, because it is a part of our current live. What if we gone work remotely from home or from a remote office in our home town. We see what we lose, we don't yet what we win. But when commuting will really eat out of our income, we will be please to say commuting goodbye. And yes, we go once in a week to the main office in the city and enjoy the cosmopolitan atmosphere. And yes we're gone love our new (bigger) houses: the company pays a piece of the mortgage in exchange for the use of the home office room by yourself. One of most expressive examples of old business models is Big Oil. Earning due to the high oil prices more than ever, but more and more being cut off of the sources and management that decides to invest the profit in purchasing own stock. That any shareholder accepts this is a miracle on its own. Even that there aren't yet activistic temporarily conglomerates of shareholders. Big Oil their business models are focused on big oil. They are disabled by their own being. But historical and actual. And it's all between their ears, what keeps them today prisoned of their history. Their views are historical one sided. Oil is good. Not oil is bad. And when oil gets better (Q4 2007 profits where higher than ever), they don't see that not oil gets better, but that energy gets better. And that in the energy sector, oil headed in the wrong direction (in terms of price/energy) and renewable is heading in the right direction (in terms of price/energy). In most cases leaving old business models needs new leadership. A better solution should be dual policy. Than old models and new models can compete on the same markets, powered by the same corporate infrastructures and governance.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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