GLOBAL RESOURCES ANALYSIS
HEADWINDS | TRADE DEFICITS
Nations with a huge trade deficit could face a head wind by the enormous investment wave that energy transition will cause. It could double their trade deficit in short time, because during transition there are still the fossil energy import (transition is realized, not functioning), and there is this new transition investment wave. Transition investments will be purchased in nations that are more far in transition processes. By the fact that the US has oil addiction in the genes of their economy, there are two possible scenarios for the US. Or their addition will force them in a secondary/background position concerning transition technology (the out of scope model). Or their addition has given them only a slow start, but an accelerating performance. The energy transition could burden or easy the trade deficits. Governments that proclaim PeakOil (like Sweden and Israel have done by setting a timeline for a fossil energy economy) will protect their economies from extra increasing trade deficits, because their economies will grow a transition industry and by this they will import less transition technology and (equal importance) b the head start of their transition industry, they will get a lot of foreign orders that ease the increase of the trade deficit due to fossil energy imports.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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