GLOBAL RESOURCES ANALYSIS
INTRODUCTION | PROLOQUE
We can put here some own text, or just let someone else with market authority do the talking for us. We have decided to go for the last option. It says better than we even can do what we want to say:
The statement of Mr. Jeroen van der Veer (CEO of Shell) concerning the world energy situation on the website of Shell: (see http://www.shell.com/home/content/aboutshell) with the following main sentence "After 2015, easily accessible supplies of oil and gas probably will no longer keep up with demand."
The two conclusions of this captain of industry of a major energy conglomerate (if some knows the global energy situation he is) made are: 1) easily accessible oil and gas has come to an end (more expensive exploration costs will drive prices up) and 2) demand with outstrip supply quick and severely (and than market mechanism of less supply and more demand will drive energy prices up).
So double misfortune for each person, company and nations that consumes high quantities of energy (and aren't we all?). These two developments are already happening. In the year 2007 as the result of those two oil went +57% up and coal +55% up.
Or listen to Jeremy Bentham (vice-president Global Business Environment van Shell International): "The IEA (International Energy Agency: the world's leading energy agency) severely underestimate in her projections the huge energy demand of the beyond early expectations economic growth of China, making them far to positive concerning timing and impact of the gap between demand and supply." of "We can't get much further ahead in increasing supply."
The fact that Shell (by this current high oil market prices) her profits not mainly use for new oil exploration, but mainly use for giant purchase of own shares (often ironical mentioned as 'stock retirement') is a sign on the wall.
Or listen to George W. Bush (President of the USA): "I believe oil prices are going up because the demand for oil outstrips the supply for oil. Oil is going up because developing countries still use a lot of oil. Oil is going up because we use too much oil, and the capacity to replace reserves is dwindling. That's why the price of oil is going up."
Time for some further analysis, what is really the situation, what is really happening and what are the impacts of these three main facets (real shortages -as in: lack of supply-, and/or high prices due to less supply than demand and/or much more higher exploration costs for new -more difficult- explorations). What are the effects of high prices? Do we know the real energy cost facet of each product or service? And will there really shortages that even cut off current supply?
Time for finding new ways of dealing with these energy shortages (that threaten regular supply and will evocable happen when we don't find new energy solutions). And with continuous more and more expensive becoming energy prices (that increase all prices severely and will also evocable happen when we don't find new energy solutions). And for preventing the very negative effects caused by these high product prices caused inflation and maybe supply interruptions on our economies.
Time for cutting all non-sense talk about that there are no problems with both supply and demand, but just looking to the figures without any opinion.
Certainly time for cutting all non-sense perception talking about 'itself fixing' situations ('the issue will be automatically solved by the market when the time ask for it'). The energy demand is so huge, so major facet of prosperity, so too bound to install bases (for example: almost all current cars only can drive on fossil products), that when we not act now we're in serious trouble.
To close this introduction with quoting an other governmental authority: The US Department of Energy (US DoE) her energy sources and installbase transition report (widely known as the Hirsch Report: http://www.netl.doe.gov/publications/others/pdf/Oil_Peaking_NETL.pdf). "The world need 20 years to transite energy generation and devices away from fossil energy, if we want to do this without the extra headwind of an economic crisis caused by energy shortage (interrupted/unstable supply) and too high prices of the old fossil energy."
Conclusion: If we're now (and not 20 years from now) are in PeakOil, we'll face serious economic trouble (as in: shrinking economies due to expensive prices), and the difficult transition away from fossil energy than will go sided with huge and severe economic problems. When PeakOil has been happened is only to say afterwards.
As said: We gone pay more for energy. Not a little more, but a lot more. Cheap energy is over. These few simple words have a huge (beyond imagination) economic impact. Denial would not help us, it only hardens the shock (of first time out of supply) severely, and leaves us with less time and economic health for energy transition (sources and use both need to transform severely).
Therefore let's look forwards: There's today really some cleaver and hard work to do in energy transition finance and realization to maintain and spread prosperity, for all of us, otherwise prosperity will leave us in high speed.
Avoiding 'make believe' type of attitude concerning the global energy situation in any direction is crucial. Both now in denial (like in: there is no problem AT ALL), as later in perception (like in: this is an un-addressable problem).
As Einstein has already told 80 years ago: Common believe is not common knowledge or actual and/or future reality. The future energy problem is much more severe as commonly recognized (denial is common now). On the other hand: the energy problem is more addressable than common sense tell you now. Explainable: after denial solutions will be designed. Or as the famous american writer Ana´s Nin said: We see the world not as it is, but as we are.
Illustrating examples from other issues: The subprime market: Common sense was too positive, that lead to purchases and investments afterwards regretted and has made the shock more severe. Or the Iraqi War: Common sense about the WMD was at that moment too negative, that leads to national decisions that were afterwards regretted.
Be independent in your analyses, use common sense, and don't take it for granted. Common sense is one of the guideline lines, certainly not the best guideline. The current and future energy situation asks for actual analysis by everyone.
Like by all major events (personally and/or globally), the human mind goes through denial, protest/anger, negotiating, depression and finally acceptance (and yet after acceptance we are able to address the energy problem).
See this analysis as a trigger for your mind. It's not build as a traditional scientifically formatted report, otherwise the numbers of readers would be too small and too selected, and therefore you will not be bored by footnotes in this analysis. It is no more and no less than just a way your own mind can travel on. So question by yourself everything that written in it.
Make up your own vision/mind make up your own mind on PeakOil, its effects and/or dangers and possible solutions based on the Global Resources Analysis. Because all things are related to each other, some issues are handled sometime in more subjects. They are sometimes influence factors, and sometimes influenced factors, leaving them unmentioned in the related subjects spare you some doublers, but would also harm your overall analysis.
Read, analyze, make up your own/corporate/governmental opinion and certainly act in line with that: The energy transition process both locally and globally need you, your brain, your skills, your experience, your network, your company, your bank, your government and certainly your action.
As said in the Summary: The size of the world population we can not steer, the prosperity demand of the world population we can not steer, the size of the natural resources we can not steer. The facets we can steer are technology, organization model, production processes and capital. And as world community we are good in all these four. Very good. We need renewable energy capacity, both remote and domestic. We need financial structures to finance these changes and investments.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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