Planck Foundation



Sunlight can be used by light based solar power, which is known as PV: Photo Voltaic The challenges the PV industry globally faces are technological improvements that addresses the three most important PV facets: price/power, size/power and montage/integration, these are the three technological directions there are in PV. Technology is what rules in PV. Manufacturers will specialize themselves on one production process (their specific market weapon) and focus on one product specification (price/power, size/power or montage/integration). The production processes will different per chosen USP. Most manufacturers will operate by just one production process and try to reduce costs by manufacturing volume. A dedicated PV technology company as Nanosolar (funded by Google) goes for price/power and offers solar cells with a price of $ 1 per peak watt hour. There will be PV tech development companies, PV cells in license manufacturing companies, PV system manufacturers, PV sales companies, PV installation companies, PV maintenance companies, PV financers and PV operators. Worldwide each roof, each wall, each window will have (integrated) PV technology. Building bricks will have build-in PV technology, glass windows will have build-in PV technology, solar protection screens will have build-in PV technology, and roof panels will have build-in PV technology. The energy use/production of a house will be a crucial part of the market price of a house. Carbon based power prices are these days relatively low, due to multi year coal purchase contracts. But due to the fact that the coal prices have risen more than the oil prices and these price increases will hit the market, later due the long period contracts, but they will hit the carbon power cost price very hard in 2009 and beyond, coal is on its way up, even more accelerating than oil. It's amazing that there are no power price projections for 2009, 2010 and 2011. PV sales models are just born and not yet full grown. Certainly there will be PV sales/finance models that are mortgage bank driven and direct mortgage attached, as they are build on/in buildings and lower the costs of living severely in times of PeakOil. Banks certainly will like to finance PV more than just blank consumer credit. PV finance gives the banks a pledge and make their customers more rich on energy production instead of more poor on spending. Besides banks, also power (both generation and sales) companies (as soon as they understand central power generation is no longer a good business model) will enter the decentral PV market. And also the telco's, the water companies, the hardware chains, the retail chains and the insurancers. Plus dedicated both old and new (both trade and installation orientated) players. The energy market is huge, so the PV market will be huge. All players will compete on performance, price, finance model, interest rate, installation, maintenance, looks, delivery time (important facet in an exploding market), micro management system, micro dc network, power purchase models, power delivery models. PV operators will hunt for each not used roof/wall/window space. No cash-out deals will rule the market (similar as the market penetration of GSM). Cities will stay energy deficit (as they are also food deficit, if they not use the Grow|OS solution in special designed hollow terps/dikes). PV technology will mostly be used decentral, building integrated/attached. The market boost really will come if PV goes transparent and will be integrated in glass windows, but that's not the case yet. Decentral power generation also contributes to power conservation as it eliminates the power lost of the current HVAC power infrastructure significant. There is certainly a need for a PV power knowledge company that exactly knows where worldwide the best PV production processes can be bought. PV knowledge and PV power equipment production will be two different types of economic sectors. Installed PV power capacity is all about 1) initial costs, 2) maintenance costs, 3) local annual light hours/intensity and 4) fossil originated power market prices.

Author: Gijs Graafland

Back to Technologies Index

Download the full Global Resources Analysis report in PDF

Planck Foundation