GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS
CHANGES | REVERSED GLOBALIZATION
Rising travel/transportation costs due much more higher energy costs are hurting the accelerating globalization development that took place in the last 100 years severely. Making China the production area of the world was based on two things: 1) cheap labor and 2) cheap transportation. PeakX moves production jobs back to purchasing area's: labor is getting relatively less expensive due PeakX and transportation is getting actual much more expensive. The effects of PeakX often are compared with very high natural import barriers. PeakOil has by sharply rising energy/transport cost created virtual import barriers higher than any government ever has dare to install. Higher than the import barriers that where installed in the 20th century before and after WW II around the globe. China will survive this: they have build a strong economy in less than 30 years. Asia will swift from production to technology. Not Europe, not the US, but Asia will become the inventing region of the world. In Asia each year the same number new engineer graduates as EU en US have together in total. It's all in the numbers. Yes, Asia has missed the innovative/liberated drive caused by Age of Enlightenment. Yes, Asia has the benefits of Confucius (solid social structures), but also the disadvantages of Confucius (less value for and experience with individualism and creativity due to conformation to the group). But EU en US are old and spoiled in terms of earnings and drive and Asia on the other hand is young, hard working and has a big appetite for knowledge and economic progress. Asia will lose production for the world and will gain innovation for the world. Asia will become the knowledge cluster of the world. Research in Asia can still be done for 10% of the cost in EU or the US (with long working days, less additional demands, much drive, high knowledge, no lease cars, few holidays and yes, with less independent thinking, but that changes even as you read this text more and more). Russia (due it's strong state characterized political history) has a great future in exact science: they have a huge pool of exact scientists. Exact science is within the Russian genes (exact science was something government didn't sanction in the USSR, it was a safe science area). Africa has a great future for food-, water-, energy- and resources technology. Collaboration (major facet in innovation) is deep in the African genes. Globally physical production will move back to consuming area's. Labor was the main cost of products. That has changed by PeakX: the costs of energy, material and transport (is energy plus material) and sometimes water will become more and more the major costs of product prices. Global product streams will reduce due the fact that food, energy and water will become more expensive and people will have less money to spend on other purchases. Global travel will become very expensive (due high energy prices), air travel will become like in the '50ties and '60ties a luxurious action, only the upper class of societies can afford. The Internet still we boost globalization. Information and communication will get more and more globalized. Videocalling with relations will replace air travel to them.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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