GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS
DANGERS | POVERTY
PeakX will 100% sure lead to higher prices for everything. More demand and equal/less supply give always price explosions driven by just ordinary market mechanisms. The higher prices for everything, everyone, everywhere will give not virtual, but actual pressure everywhere. Certainly by the low incomes where this makes food and hygiene less accessible. It will lead the old/weak/poor/low paid/sick/unemployed persons/households/nations/regions/parts of the global society deeper into poverty. This is not a specific third world issue, but has been seen after the collapse of communism in the '90ties in the second world and will be seen the next decade in the first world as capitalism will gets its mature/endurance test. The first world will have massive power/gas/water grid disconnections of insolvent people/households/companies due to sharp risen prices, just daily food will become everywhere and for everyone very expensive. There is no reason why the Credit Crisis will not lead to a total collapse of global stock markets and the commercial debt paper market (corporate bonds) therefore its value. Slashing not small sized holes in the assets of persons, households and pension funds. The first phase/stage of Credit Crisis will lead not lead to the lost of saving money, government issued bonds of the bonds of all the GSE (Governmental Sponsored Enterprise: Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and al the other similar for market accelerating initiated government originated market/government models) issued debt paper, but as interest rates go skyrocking and governmental debts become not financeable, this could lead to collapse of the finance of government (making them insolvent). In case of new systems they will certainly honour the assets of bank deposits (saving money) otherwise the will not have any support of the nation for it. The Credit Crisis and the Energy Crisis will drain prosperity to poverty severely. Countries that are not directly exposed to the Credit Crisis have better odds in the first (direct) phase/stage of the Credit Crisis (as they only have the Energy Crisis to deal with). But if they for exports depends on nations that will be hit by the Credit Crisis, they will be hit severely in the second (consequential/indirect) phase/stage of the credit crisis. This is the reason why China will bee hit multiple and severe. They will lost enormous capital figures due their former investment commitments to the US, in exchange for market access in the US. They will loose their main customer nation due to less purchase power in this nation. They will feel the impact of the Energy Crisis in their own economy severely and the Energy Crisis terminates their ambition to stay the factory of the world ass skyrocking transport costs make a huge virtual import/export wall. China her only and major future hotspot is within the advanced technology hardware/software sector. The Chinese has proven to be very good in this and research and development is in China (relative to global levels) very cheap due low costs. The Chinese deliver each year more graduated students than US or EU has in total. China will purchase all the big US hard- en software brands, like the Arabs will purchase all the US financial and energy brands. India will stay the call centre of the English part of the and software centre of the total globe. India and China will gain majority 'market share' in the open source movement and the birth place of new open source projects. Russia and Brazil will be picking up the chips globally: They have everything the 21st century demands of a nation and they will grow rich, strong and sustainable by it. Russia and Brazil will be the leading nations of the 21st century. In the US and the EU living standards will go lower as economies collapse under the Credit Crisis and the Energy Crisis. But regions/cities/villages who adapt their self as quick as possible to the new realities will develop a high quality, high prosperity, very sustainable economy/society with no bubbles. Inventing advanced local economies is the cure for less collapse and more prosperity. Sustainability will become the main economic dream/reality. It comforts and secures people/companies/governments.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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