GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS
EFFECTS | TURBULENCE
If we don't act and in that do the right thing: we choose for increased turbulence caused by the price rises and the economic problems they give (followed by risk of economic collapse in energy/resources deficit countries). Doing nothing is not an option in a changing economic environment, because the economic environment is changing, which certainly has effects. There are two intellectual challenges to overcome before turbulence and it consequences can be described: 1) less analytic thinking and 2) over positive thinking. Less analytic thinking: It's rare the fact that something must be done (if we want to avoid turbulence) must be even mentioned or emphasized, but too many politicians/economists/entrepreneurs/journalists/households believe that the disappearance of cheap/abundant energy/resources (as the two cornerstone of the economic progress) can be removed without any consequences for the economic building. Total unreal uneconomic unbelievable irrational point of view, too odd to describe but too many believes in / acts by this. Take away the cornerstones of something and nothing happens. The consequences of disappearance of the cornerstones without replacement is chaos. Really not of this world that this simple true is completely overseen by 95% of the economists. So much for the quality of our 'mainly wave following' economists. Forwards thinking was something economists did a lot, just talk over the current economic weather and the past has become main stream. The other thing that must be straighten out is 'over positive thinking': Something like 'but we are intelligent people, we find ways to deal with this. Economists who say this don't understand really a) the importance of energy and resources on economies (and therefore businesses, governments and households) b) the short time frame in which price rises will occur. Energy is not an invention, not a new software program on a computer. Energy doesn't fall suddenly out of the sky like manna. Everybody thought that we have left 30/40 years before fossil are run out. But due to recent global population and global prosperity growth demand is outstripping supply and pushes energy prices to levels we thought that would occur 30/40 years from now in just a few years. Oil prices have tripled in just 2 years. It's safe to say that the next 5 or 10 years oil prices will double every year. Positive thinkers: where are your solutions? Market them: the world will pay you a lot if you do so. Don't you have own solutions just put positive miracle thinking into your bin: it will hurt you and your environment. Energy miracles we will not see. Economic winter due energy miracle believe we will see a lot. Economists: if energy prices get the coming 2 years the same boost as they did the last 2 years the party is over: food and energy will than push out any other spending and economies will shrink and even sink, with all the attached turbulence. Just take one day to imaging our current world with oil prices at $ 600 per barrel level. The fundamentals are more in that direction than in historical prices. We facing an economic winter and no soft one. Don't project economic summer data on economic winter situations: you will leave house with a 'coat' and get economic very ill. Believing in automatically appearing solutions is a choice, not an intelligent one, but still a choice. Less awareness, less analytic thinking and over positive thinking are the barriers before we can move to realizing real solutions. Certainly needed time we just have robed from our self by less awareness, not analytic thinking and over positive thinking. When reality hits, all 3 will disappear as snow in the sun. But it will be winter than. The winter is bad timing to prepare yourself for the winter. Damages will be unnecessary extra (extra as in: double) in size. Choosing to act is as much as choosing to act. When energy prices and food prices skyrocking, economies/societies gets into fire. Bankrupting of companies and thereby of financials and governments, unemployment, social unrest. Don't want to describe turbulence: you are an intelligent person: just think by yourself what will happen, what the impact of higher credit-, energy-, water-, food-, and resources prices that eat out the economy and consumption willingness and purchase power will be on companies, markets, purchase power, economies, governments, households, health care and each and every person worldwide and in your city. Want to go to work by public transportation? I think they will be on strike for resistance of wages cuts due energy prices. Holland has already had a long fuel price based strike of public transportation, which was ended by the government increased subsidies to the operators. But governments are the ones who will be hit the hardest by economic problems. Just look to the financial status of the US cities and you see this theory actual happen.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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