GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS
ENERGY | INDUSTRIES
Industries will move to energy sources (less transport costs and more certainty in delivery). In the US industries will move to the wind quarter just between the east and west costs: Hereby being able to own their own windparks and reduce both energy miles as transport miles. Industries will concentrated themselves also near rail roads for cutting transport costs on resources and ready products. And if the industrial model we have no will survive the Energy Crisis is very doubtable: it has been designed/developed in times of cheap and abundant energy, based on globalization. When the statement is made that PeakEnergy is the end of China as producing zone/factory of the world, everybody in the Western World is happy by the fact that it 'will bring back the jobs home'. But the same cause of that development (high energy prices that outstrips the labor price facet) will also have major impact on industries all around the world. High energy prices and thereby high transport prices are the dead of our current way of industrialization. Central knowledge driven decentral actual production will replace it. The production model of the 21st century has many characteristics of franchising: An ideal mixture between global and regional/local. Product design, product processes, production equipment, branding, marketing and marketing materials will be done national/global. Actual production will be done regional/local. Managed fragmented industrialization will be the forth industrial wave. The 1st was due to water/wind mills, the 2nd coal/steam engines, the 3rd power/oil engines and the 4th characterized by solar/decentral.
Author: Gijs Graafland
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