GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS


PROBLEMS | LYING STATISTICS


Not one single governmental figure supplied after 1960 is not artificial pushed in the wanted direction. GDP, inflation, un-employment figures are since Kennedy cleared from discouraged workers (norms for this can variable due to wanted outcome). The yearly social budget surpluses are since Johnson's Unified Budget pushed into the general budget (regardless the fact that they are needed into the future and so create a huge invisible debt Walker as Comptroller General of the GAO has warned about). The price rises of food and fuel are since Nixon not longer part of the inflation figures. Since Clinton in 1986 implemented the Boskin Commission statistic model, statistics lost any connection with reality as 3 artificial influences where set into place. These 3 where: 1) Substitution: If something is expensive people but something else. No more salmon, but hotdogs for example. The Farm Bureau who doesn't do this give a 11.7% price rise on the last year, the government gives a 4.1% price rise, quite a difference. 2) Weighting: When some goods/services rise to fast, their weighting is lower. For example: Healthcare is reported as 17% GDP, but weights only 6% of the Consumer Price Index -CPI-, even GDP counts for more than consumer spending (so it had to be higher than 17%). 3) Hedonics: The product improvements are woven into the inflation figures. The computer of today is faster than the computer of last year, son the price of the computer has dropped on paper (not in the store). In times of high speed product improvements hedonics are a huge reservoir to lower inflation figures artificial. 46% of the CPI is influenced/adjusted by hedonics, creating the current reported 5% inflation instead of the real 13%. This is the push of the cliff for the US payment power capacity are thereby one of the unknown triggers of the Credit Crisis. People doesn't have the payment power anymore by the lack of purchase power they lost. They were not encouraged by the government to slow down, but stimulate to spend more, even the purchase power was not really there, so the payment power declined severely. Anything nobody doesn't understand (the mixed signal problem) becomes at once very clear. The reality is hard, the statistics are rosy. Low inflation rates has nice governmental effects. Social security doesn't have to rise much, hospitals can not rose their prices to much (and are in dire straits). The GDP figures are also cooked, year after year. Although cooking gets of course more difficult each year, as the gap with reality widens more and more. GDP is inflated by: 1) Imputations: Transactions that doesn't take place in reality, but only in GDP. For example the homeowners without a mortgage lives for free, there is no transaction, but the GDP has add this 'transaction' into GDP account. 2) Hedonics. The effect of improved technology is taken into account. This is really surreal. Computer sales gives better computers, so more production and so a higher (invisible) GDP, that the government wants to put in the GDP. The most odd facet of this: technological improvements are used to push inflation artificial low and the same time to push GDP artificial higher. Real transaction based GDP in 2003 was not the reported $ 11 trillion, but $ 7.1 trillion after $ 1.6 trillion artificial imputation reduction and $ 2.3 trillion artificial hedonics reduction. The 2003 GDP contains 35% air. Steady each year 5% increase with lead to levels of absurdity. The GDP grows and foreclosures is reality. Not only stupid subprime investments with even stupid (on eternal price rise based) payment schemes, but also just a foreclosure threat by the regular American family that struggles with food and fuel (and mortgage, creditcard payments and car loans). The distance with reality grows each year. On paper we're improving year after year, but in reality we declining year after year. No government ever will have the guts to remove these huge lies out of the statistics. Regardless the economic demolition effects of it. The Planck Proposal described in the Credit section of this analysis maybe could be the moment. This Boskin Commission (1995/1996) originated changes also give a complete different look on Clinton's historical economic success, making it only artificial created by these artificial into the calculation brought influences, it was just changing calculation rules. Since than reported inflation was severe lower than in reality, reported GDP much more higher than in reality, reported job rises were severe lower than in reality. All just by data manipulation. Cooking the books has started by the government, not in corporation. Making data was easier and more sufficient than making real economy or telling the truth. By all this the economy lost it beacons for navigation, for staying in deep/good water. Lying statistics jeopardizing our future severely. Jeopardizing statistics should be the most severe official and governmental crime, with ditto consequences. Much of the data on statistics listed in this paragraph is acquired from Chris Martenson's site and the online presentations on it (http://www.chrismartenson.com/fuzzy_numbers). The huge consequence of all this fancy/cheating calculations is the fact that the USA is since 2001 in recession. Mixed signals are better to understand after cutting the air out statistics. Real statistics explains one of the reasons of the Credit Crisis: the lack of payment power in USA. But if you run a debt organization, you better have good figures, otherwise the lenders will walk away.


Author: Gijs Graafland


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