GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS


SIDEWINDS | ENERGY


The problems of the Energy Crisis are severely under estimated by many political/economic/financial leaders. They doesn't want to see that carbon energy plays the most important role in our economies, that the period of cheap oil is over, that carbon energy is a finite resource and that after exploring the easy to explore and easy to refine oil, only the difficult to explore and difficult to refine oil is left. The major differences between the sidewinds regarding the Credit Crisis and the sidewinds regarding the Energy Crisis are severely. The Credit Crisis already has happened, and only must come visible, the credit problem has stopped growing, is only not yet revealed in its real size. The Energy Crisis on the other hand grows further and further. The Energy Crisis gives a short transition time and sidewinders (people who doesn't recognize the problem) shortens this giving (already) short transition time even more. The Credit Crisis sidewinders only pushes problems to the front (and yes delaying economic reforms and yes causing severe damage), but the Energy Crisis sidewinders are playing with our whole economic future. They don't see the fact that our whole current economic model is build on cheap energy and that cheap energy just left us in 2004. People who say that there is enough cheap carbon energy out there are no-no's and morons. The problem is that they are Ministers of Economy, Ministers of Foreign Affairs, researchers of economic institutes, political leaders. They have authority, but they don't know the facts and the developments. The sidewinders concerning the Energy Crisis really rob economies of their transition times. Like in physics: the speed and the brake time make the impact force. Speed: we drive hard: we've used cheap carbon for anything. Brake time: the time we have to adopt to expensive energy. Impact force: very hard if we don't brake of steering in new directions. Simmons calls not using transition time actively 'a certain smash against the wall'. Energy sidewinders must be confronted with facts and developments and energy sidewinders also must be put out of office: they have showed not to adapt (not able to handle) facts and developments. They don't deserve the authority we have given them. They are no actual/future leaders, but just history teachers/repeaters. As the cost of energy will rise severely, governments find themselves placed for five new challenges: 1) Transforming cheap energy based prosperity to expensive energy based prosperity (as in: cutting as much as energy demand in economic processes as possible, as in: local vibrant prosperity, as in: cutting the huge energy demand of transport and mobility that can not be replaced by any other energy resource, that were only possible due to cheap carbon energy). 2) Stimulating non carbon energy harvesting. 3) Realizing a decentral based power infrastructure design. 4) Finding creative ways to lower the cost of living and government for households and companies. 5) Facilitating the 'production jobs coming home' development (as energy becomes the main production costs: China will no longer be the factory of the world), combined with more local production. The Energy Crisis its impact on incomes, on corporate profits, on governmental costs is severe. Creative (not rude) finding cost lowering measures that stimulates prosperity, that's the challenge for governments, after they removed the misleading (and lazy in researching) energy sidewinders out of their teams.


Author: Gijs Graafland


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