GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS


TAILWINDS | ADVANCED LOCALISM


Communism has collapsed due inefficiency: in the communistic system not inventism, but reactionarism was rewarded: freedom is the birth ground of economic performance. Capitalism has got two broken legs by the energy crisis and the financial crisis. Both state driven communism and fractional banking based growth focused capitalism are 20th century economic and societal models, fueled by cheap energy, resources and transport and controlled by huge central governmental influence (in this the USSR and the USA strangely enough top each other). Both models have run out of their driving energy, making them weak. The 21st century needs an own (adequate to the new situation) model for preventing National Collapses and Global Third World Wars. Localism will be the Third Way/Wave: Localism. Maximal prosperity by low energy demand. Localism is the only valid model in times of high energy prices. Each local government must not wait on the national government to act (because they will not). Local governments can make and realize ToDoLists. They must make a whole list with thousand to do items. Priority One is informing the companies and households for which they are responsible by a simple message: 'Tough times ahead due the Credit Crisis and the Energy Crisis. But we've seen it and we want prepare our local economy by adjusting it to this new realities.' The best thing local government should do it just sit together in two different meetings (under guidance of a good meeting leader) and ask themselves the next questions: 'What will happen as the Credit Crisis will lead to collapse of the financials (as in: the financial system, but that question is too tough) and the national government has become totally irrelevant and we must take care of ourselves.' And 'What will happen as due the Energy Crisis oil prices rise to $ 250 or even $ 500 per barrel oil which influence all the attached/related energy prices and thereby all product/service prices.' These two simple meetings will lead automatically to adequate local responses. Government (also local government) can only steer, not power developments. Real power for changes are within people, households and companies. Everybody than will start thinking about an own emergency energy use conservation action scheme. Etc, etc, etc. The currency issue is the only thing local governments must address completely by themselves, not giving this to the market again as President Wilson did in 1913. The system of two captains on one ship (Federal Government and the FED) is not good: both can blame each other. Shared responsibility is lack of responsibility due build-in unaccountability. The most simple 'emergency currency for on the shelf' is the kWh price. What about energy, water, sewage, food, transportation, jobs, justice, police: all the things we now take for granted, but then we must 'reinvent' all over again? People will start reading Heinberg, Kunstler, Schumacher and Raiffeisen as they have thought about this there whole life and can provide many directions and practical examples of things that would make a difference when energy has become very expensive and local has become king (as in: the most relevant environment). People will seek jobs closer to home. Companies will relocate or design more geographical diffuse business models. Local water plans will be made, roof water will be valued/stored again, local power production/harvesting will gain popularity. Local food production based on low energy and low space demanding open source system Grow|OS (www.growindus.com) will boost. Packet transporters will join forces with public transportation companies, to cut on fuel costs and increase frequencies the same time (lower costs, better services). But also major improvements will be achieved. Like a local redundant internet exchange with multicasting (making digital broadcasting possible) attached to redundant multiple fiber connections (that are already present in powerlines, interlocal roads and railways), making peering (traffic exchange) deals with other local hubs, enabling usage fee free communication (as there is no usage connected costprice) and becoming digitally independent from the major digital hubs/exchanges (like also has happened in aviation). Investing in fiber to the home in the high density areas, plans for Wimax (wireless local internet/phone) for mobile and serving the low density areas. Videocalling and remote desktop work will gain in popularity. Both will rise / get huge market shares in a speed similar to the fax (who just take a huge part of the communication in just 2 or 3 years back in the '80ties). Ensuring the local digital future and its connection with the world. Energy will been seen as wealth drain and conservation will equals prosperity. People and companies will start to use more and more local suppliers (as they come more price attractive due too high energy/transportation costs). Local is back again and more vital than ever. Combining the power of local with the power of global. Local was someplace people sleep. Local will become someplace people live (work and relax). Local entertainment demand will boost severely as it will not be economic to drive to other places for entertainment. What about education (location, types, changes)? What about local media and diversity in that? What if the State will no longer finance social security issues? How we don't get circumstances that where regular in Russia in the '90ties. Concerning geographical design Kunstler his legacy could contribute severely to each local government and to local real estate companies. The beautifulness of all these actions is that they're good actions, supported by even the blind for the Credit Crisis and the Energy Crisis. Everybody wants a vital local economy. Give parts of the mix resistance: just drop them and pick them up later on when the time certainly will be right for them. Go for volume in local vitality, forget dogmas, just adjust to better what easily could be changed for the better. Local government is much more delicate than national government: wisdom is needed to achieve maximal adjustments in the shortest time with the lowest input of time/energy. The common sense is moving very quick to vitalization of local economies, don't push to far, to fast, adjusting is about acceptance, about serving local needs, not about knowing it better. What about fashion, what about art, what about music, what about radio, what about TV, what about GSM, what about the railroads, what about the roads, what about aviation, what about farming, what about costs of local government, what about leisure, what about house adjustment, which industries we will loose, which industries will grow severe, what can't we do on our own and we need neighbourhood cities for to corporate or cooperate? What 'services' deliver regional, national, federal and supranational governments and what we want to pay for these 'services'? The mass/weight/importance of everything shifts from national to local. Do we want new inhabitants and companies? Things will be turned around (market polarity change): these days local governments facilitates national governments, this will change 180 degrees. What is our UPS, which things are we good / comparative in, what do we have to offer, what will be our marketing and how we do that and pay for it? The closer democratic government is to the people and economies they service the better the quality, having no odds on really losing track. Of course there will be local dictatorship and corruption. Protection against such issues (services) can be 'obtained' from above local governmental layers, acting more as insurers/facilitators than the centre of everything. What about taxation? What about freedom of speech, freedom of protest? How we ensure local water availability and quality? What will we do in preventing water pollution? How we save on water, power and heating bills? How we store the cold of the night for using it during the day in summer times? Can local food production been expanded? Do we install a local digital market place? Do we reopen a daily physical market trade location? Where would that location be? How we register ownership of real estate? How we register credit records/defaults? What we do on recycling of precious raw materials? Do we need an airstrip? Do we need air heliport? Do we need to make water reservoirs? Do we need to dig canals? What about roads? What about street lighting? What about taxis? What about bio diversity? Must we make parks? Must we plant fruit trees? Do we have bees for pollination? What are we willing to push to higher levels and what want we to pay for that 'services'? What about healthcare? What about doctors? What about medicines? What about hospitals? What about insurance? What about education? What about our roads? What about leisure? What about entertainment? What about power generation? What about freedom and privacy? Do we develop local quality 'brands' for normation instead of national governments? Questions, questions, questions. The answers will appear automatically as result of joint analysis. The whole development in one line: stay where you are, dig in and make your life and the life of your neighbourhood beautiful. Us will become a more important world in everybody's live.


Author: Gijs Graafland


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