GLOBAL FUTURE ANALYSIS


WATER | AGRICULTURE


More than 80% of the global sweet water is used for agriculture. Agriculture is just exporting soil demand, sun and water. Water is the most scare one of those three. Agriculture equals water. Period. As prosperity levels rise, meat consumption rises, and animal food demand rises 5 times more (as the cereal/meat ratio of bio industry is 5/1) than meat consumption rises. Meat production in bio industry will become too expensive due the high cereal/meat ratio of it and the scarcity of water to grow this cereals as the cereal/water ratio is 1/5000. Global meat production will leave the cereal based bio industry model and will a) go more local (more domestic animals) and b) go more global (more in ranch type of agricultural settings in Russia and South America). New technologies will both generate water out of air moisture and reduce water demands the same time. The Aral Sea catastrophe/disappearance is a huge example of wrong, just old fashion low tech irrigation of agricultural (in this case: cotton) production with a huge regional ecological/economical impact. The cotton farms are bankrupted and their former soil eroded. In countries will a high air moisture grade, a closed circuit of water pumped around in an above/below surface closed circuit. It will be cooled right below the earth surface, and the air moisture will condense against the above surface part of the closed circuit, giving both 'drop irrigation' and soil cooling (water, sun and a cool soil are important grow facets). In countries with deserts, CSP (concentrated solar power) will be used to generated both power and sweet water, for local use or for export. Agricultural on CSP sites (deserts) will become common.


Author: Gijs Graafland


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